Where the Mind Wanders

I was first introduced to sports betting by The Favorites podcast, hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. I love them both and owe a lot of my current betting philosophy to their show. One thing they constantly talked about was betting bad teams in really s***ty spots because, in theory, you could be getting an extra point of value. Since the average person will usually side with the comfortable or familiar favorite, that can leave the sportsbooks with some level of liability, meaning they’re rooting for those heavily bet teams to lose. The books are not our friends, and any line that looks friendly or generous usually has strings attached. That philosophy has resulted in me placing plenty of bets on teams like the Jets, the Wizards and, unfortunately for me last night, the Connecticut Sun.

For the most part, the methodology has rewarded me. I get a sinister high from placing these disgusting island-game bets and closing my eyes. Last night, however, I bet on the Sun and wished I had actually closed my eyes. As you can probably imagine, I wasn’t particularly pleased with the outcome. I was even more disappointed by the effort and scheme. I promise I’ll eventually get to some positive sentiments and maybe even a few compliments, but first, there’s some light housekeeping.

The league’s three newest expansion teams have undoubtedly been a success. For those who don’t know, those are the Golden State Valkyries, Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire. The fans are showing out, the teams have exciting players and each organization has laid the groundwork for a strong basketball culture. The WNBA currently has 15 teams, with three more on the way. However, if you’ve watched the Connecticut Sun at all this season, it’s hard to make the case that the league actually needs more teams.

Last night featured one of the most pathetic efforts and lineups I’ve ever seen from a professional team. As stated earlier, I’ve spent the past few years torturing myself by watching corner-TV games during garbage time between absolute bottom-tier teams. I know bad basketball when I see it. To avoid sounding like just another angry person on the internet, I’ll attempt to explain myself. Excluding Brittney Griner for now because I think she should be retiring soon, the Connecticut Sun have only five professional-caliber players on their roster. And I don’t mean five starters. I mean five players who are genuinely capable of earning a WNBA roster spot: Leïla Lacan, who also missed last night’s game; Kennedy Burke, and that might be generous; Saniya Rivers, who might have regressed from last season; Charlisse Leger-Walker, who is fine; and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, who has actually had a great season.

If you think I’m missing somebody, you’re being way too generous. The players left off this list have shown the smallest flashes across what are now relatively large sample sizes. In cases like Aaliyah Edwards, I don’t think they can be considered serious players. By serious players, I mean players capable of contributing to a winning brand of basketball. Last night felt like watching a WNBA G League game, if that were a real thing. I genuinely believe that, in a seven-game series, the Golden State Valkyries without any of their five starters would beat a full-strength Connecticut Sun team in five games. Connecticut’s roster is filled with players who wouldn’t touch the court for almost any other team. I’m including the Seattle Storm, Toronto Tempo and every other bottom-tier organization in that statement.

The entire operation is a joke and has been for the past few years, which is a shame because I genuinely love some of its young talent, specifically Leïla Lacan and Saniya Rivers. Whatever has been happening in Connecticut has already begun to corrupt and taint the bright futures those players could have. In the interest of not wasting any more time on one of the worst professional organizations of the past few years, I’ll leave it there. I feel bad for the players and for anyone who has the misfortune of playing for the Sun during however many games remain.

I’ll attempt to be nice and offer a player comp for the Sun. This one is based entirely on the eye test. There’s an internet trend where the player and situation are blacked out, leaving you to focus only on the movement and physical package before guessing who it is. This might literally come down to athleticism and the elevation on her jump shot, but Saniya Rivers sometimes looks a little bit like Anthony Edwards. They both have this insanely fast first step and elevation on their jumpers that I don’t see from many other players. It’s almost as if they’re floating when they leave the ground. Of course, almost none of that comparison has manifested itself in Rivers’ actual production, but my job is to relay what my eyes see.

If she stays with the Sun, this is almost guaranteed, but in no world will her production or accomplishments ever become comparable to Ant’s. Still, she looks kind of cool and could have a decent highlight tape when it’s all said and done. That was my attempt to be nice.

02PSA

I’ll say this again: Unless you are actively trying to lose games or are simply incompetent, there is no legitimate reason to start Ezi Magbegor over Awa Fam. I don’t understand the Ezi love. She’s like Jaren Jackson Jr. without the defensive tradeoff. She can sort of shoot the three and plays with decent energy, but all she does is allow the other team to collect offensive rebounds. Her return to form has taken longer than the Storm would have hoped. Maybe they’re giving her this much playing time out of loyalty, but she is no longer a starting-caliber player. Going even further, I don’t think she’ll be in the league much longer.

03Do You Love Me?

Kiki Rice, the sixth pick in this year’s draft and one of a record six UCLA players selected, has got it. It sucked watching her get injured, but since returning, Sandy Brondello has given her an incredibly long runway, and she has taken full advantage of it. Toronto’s roster is a little guard-heavy, so although injuries suck and the Tempo potentially had a playoff-caliber team, the organization should find some solace in the fact that it has a future star in Rice. She’s incredibly strong and great at keeping her dribble alive. I haven’t noticed many of the rookie mistakes you normally see from young guards, and she has shown no fear of the moment or of playing against the best competition in the league.

I’m not sure whether she’ll start at the beginning of next season, but mark my words: If she stays healthy, she’ll be a starter by the end of the year and could become a top-20 player in the league. I didn’t watch any UCLA basketball last season, but based on how things have begun to play out in the pros, Rice might have been the secret sauce of that team, and she may have the brightest future of them all.

04Clear Skies Ahead

The Seattle Storm have such a bright future. They have a three-headed snake in Flau’jae Johnson, Awa Fam and Dominique Malonga, along with some great veterans on the roster. Stefanie Dolson and Natisha Hiedeman are players who have thrived in their roles and overachieved relative to what their supposed potential was. Essentially, they know how to play winning basketball. They know how to show up to work. They know how to try hard, maintain a high level of focus and get the most out of themselves on the court despite whatever limitations they might have. Some of Seattle’s bench pieces might have another level to reach as well, leaving the team with an incredibly high ceiling. So, what does Seattle actually need to do to move up a tier?

I look back at last year’s Golden State Valkyries, who were better and more promising than the Storm, even though they lacked the potential superstars Seattle currently has. Golden State brought Gabby Williams over from Seattle, trusted that the existing talent would continue to improve and became the second-best team in the league. The Valkyries found a star who could slot directly into their roster without creating chaos or unnecessary drama. They needed a little more talent, and instead of making a massive, desperate trade, they signed Williams in free agency. I might never be more complimentary of an offseason move because that was a stroke of genius. They knew they didn’t merely need a star. They needed the right star. They didn’t sign somebody just for the sake of signing somebody.

Aside from replacing the f*** out of Sonia Raman, Seattle doesn’t necessarily need more traditionally good players. It needs solid, stable role players. The Storm don’t need ball hogs or players interested only in executing their own agendas. They need players like Tiffany Hayes, Bridget Carleton or Megan DiLeo. Essentially, they need winning players who can help remove the stench of losing that currently hangs over the organization.

If Seattle doesn’t handle this correctly, I could see Flau’jae Johnson eventually demanding to leave. I could also see Awa Fam and Dominique Malonga never reaching their ceilings, which are pretty f***ing high for both of them. That makes this an incredibly important offseason. The Storm can’t remain in rebuilding mode. First, they’ve already drafted a ton of talent. Second, I don’t know how much more their fans can take. Third, this is a professional league. It would be like the Spurs deciding to slow-tank and wait for the 2027 season instead of trying to win now by acquiring De’Aaron Fox and Luke Kornet, moves that ultimately helped them reach the NBA Finals. That’s how good I believe this Storm team can eventually become.

However, whoever is responsible for hiring coaches in Seattle might need to try a different strategy. During my time as a WNBA fan, bad coaching has caused plenty of high-end talent to leave Seattle, and I’d hate to see that happen again. It’s even worse when all three recent expansion teams appear to have found quality coaches while the Seattle Storm somehow managed to replace Noelle Quinn with an even worse one. So, the steps toward no longer being a complete dumpster fire are fairly simple: Find a good coach. Keep developing the good young talent already on the roster. Then surround that talent with serious adults who are the spitting image of professionalism.

That’s the end of my rant. I want to buy into the Storm next season, but I need to see a lot of changes around the margins before I’m fully convinced.